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Motokid
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 Posted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 9:45 am Post subject: Economic Speculations & Predictions for 2009 |
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The last 3 months have been economic hell for much of the world. America and other countries are scrambling and struggling for some level of stability and hopefully a return to reasonable growth at some point in the future.
What do you foresee happening in 2009?
Be as broad or as specific as you can.
Can, or will the American Auto industry find some level of "viability" now that they've been thrown a thin life-line?
Will the DOW settle somewhere around where it is now? Is 8000 some kind of "bottom"?
Or will the next major wave of bad economic news drop the DOW to some other level below what we've seen this year?
I've read where some are speculating that things will continue to be rough, at best, until late 2009 or early 2010.
Are we at the "bottom" now? Is the "bottom" just around the corner? Do you think we've got a lot more to experience before we see the "true bottom"?
What do you believe or speculate will happen in 2009? |
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Rufus08
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| Posted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| Unfortunately I don't think that we have hit bottom yet. We are going to face yet another financial crisis. Large companies are laying people off which is going to affect the housing market with more foreclosures...which will have the ripple effect for everyone else. Now foreclosures are typically those who had ARMs with marginal income to debt ratio...we are beginning to see foreclosures of people who were considered "stable" with 30 year fixed mortgages. |
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buttwheat
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| Posted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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Well the economy will be the best economy ever not just here but everywhere around the world. We just elected the savor all praise Obama.
Funny thing is I now see people running around with "We did it" ect. bumper stickers. Oh man these people are in for a bitter disappointment he is just a man.
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sidelvar
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| Posted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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I'm interested to see what happens in the new few months as I think the first quarter is crucial. Congress is going to be most eager to pass new laws and hand out more money than they will be in the last 3/4 of the year. I think AZ has a whole lot of trouble coming our way in regards to foreclosures. As far as a world economics goes I am thinking we get turned around end 09 or early 2010.
As far as the auto industry goes I think Ford declined the money for a reason. Until the unions go away there is no viable solution. Which sucks for the workers because the won't have awesome benefits like they have in the past.
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Motokid
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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One interesting observation an analyst at PNC made was that people now expect bad news. So bad news won't have as dramatic of an effect on the overall market.
Those who panic-sold did it in October-ish time frame.
Those who stayed in the market are in it for the long run.
So in a sense we are at least close to the bottom.
As we've witnessed in the last month or so bad economic news is not sending the overall markets down.
The huge wild swings in either direction seem to be tapering off.
Hopefully, that's a sign. |
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super_sam
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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This is election year garbage... Most of it.. Why is it that everyone I know here in retail had a kick ass year? and....yet there are still no people cleaning out their bank accounts, or selling apples on the street corner.. Most of it is a way to get the free government money...
IT is all speculation. I guess the joke's on you. |
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Motokid
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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What's election year garbage?
The massive housing "crisis" and mortgage foreclosure rate is election year garbage?
The entire world economy dropping by some large percentage is thanks to our election?
Japan, China, and Europe are all experiencing a depression/recession because Bush is leaving, and Obama is coming?
I don't think our changing of the guard has that kind of impact.
I could see a drop on maybe 5-10%, but not 40% or more.
The self-destruction of the American Auto industry has nothing to do with changing presidents.
I'd love to know more about what you mean SS. Expand please. |
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super_sam
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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The economy situation isnt what you think it is... Its speculation, and China cant go on much longer without falling apart, so that was bound to happen.
I'm saying its like global warming. There is no such monster. It feels pretty fucking cold to me right now. |
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Motokid
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 5:32 pm Post subject: |
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Global warming exists. The debate is in the cause.
The stock market and overall national economy are making historic adjustments.
Historic on the level of the "Great Depression" scale.
This is not just a media made monster, or some Al Gore cock-suck-fest.
Major banks have gone belly up. Major industries are laying off. Major Industries may have to go bankrupt. The housing market bubble has burst. The dollar is dropping in value.
Millions have lost billions in investments across the board. This is not like the dot com fiasco of the 90's.
This is historic in proportion. |
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Rufus08
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 11:15 pm Post subject: |
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| I believe that in many ways the current economic situation is just as bad, if not worse than the depression. We have to remember that the world was very different back in the 1920's compared to now. Granted, we don't have soup kitchens (at least not shown on the nightly news) but we are facing hard times that are as proportionate to us today as the depression was in their day. I am sure that our unemployment figures of today are similar to the depression (based on population comparison and the fact that women really didn't hold employment back then). We see businesses fold...ones that were the cornerstones of today's economy. Banks are failing, the world economy is showing signs of tanking too. I think that this time period will go down in history as some of our darkest hours. |
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Freddie
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| Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 1:57 am Post subject: |
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I honestly don't know a single person, first hand, that the economy has effected as of yet. See, I live in what best described as an "economically depressed area". It's a small city that 2-3 factories and a college essentially keep running. As of now, 90% of the financial situation has been thoroughly white collar and hasn't made it's way down to the "$20,000-$30,000 a year" blue collar folk that make up the majority of my local populous.
Give it time though. I'd assume that this year, if things truly are as bad as the evening news and the talking heads would like us to believe, things will flow downstream enough to start effecting us down at this level.
The biggest thing hurting us here at the moment is that fact that, when the federal minimum wage went up, the price of basic necessities (groceries, utilities, rent, etc etc etc) went up accordingly. THAT'S the problem here. It has NOTHING to do with multi-millionaire CEOs over-spending, or with big banks going under, it has to do with the fact that the government felt that fast-food employees (not knocking it, i was one at one time) and high school kids with part time jobs deserve more money, which drove the prices of everyday items up, effectively making the average person's dollar worth that much less.
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Rufus08
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| Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 8:05 am Post subject: |
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| I see your point, but unfortunately many people make minimum wage (or just above). I think that the "ripple effect"of the mortgage crisis, bank failures and failing companies are what are driving prices up....henceforth the rise in minimum wage. I live in an area that is surviving fairly well. Our minimum wage goes to $8.55 per hour effective January 1st. I travel around a bit and I don't think our prices for rent, food, gas, etc. is much different than other places, even though our minimum wage may be higher. |
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Freddie
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| Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: |
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Rufus, the only problem I see with your point is that we were seeing prices skyrocket FAR before all of the "crisis" was being felt on a national level. Literally, it was within a week of the minimum wage increase.
My problem is this, we'll take my friend for example. For this, we'll call him "Vincent". 2 years ago, Vincent worked a decent job making $9.00 an hour, while minimum wage here was $5.15 an hour. That said, for his skilled work, he was getting $4.15 an hour more than the typical unskilled worker getting minimum wage.
Minimum Wage jumped from $5.15 to $7.75 an hour here. That said, Vincent's job, because they don't have any workers there making minimum wage, made no adjustment to their payroll. Now, Vincent is making $1.25 and hour more for skilled work than unskilled work. Furthermore That means that his "skills" are now worth $2.90 less an hour than it was just a short while before.
But it gets worse : Since everything involving the economy, realistically, is on a sort of shifting scale, to reach a level of balance, it was a simple procedure : The money going OUT went UP, so, in turn, the money coming back IN had to go UP ACCORDINGLY. That said, a simple trip to the grocery store showed you all that you needed to go : EVERYTHING, across the board, had a price hike.
What does that mean? It means that NOW, Vincent's $9.00 an hour, is worth, realistically, closer to $7.00 an hour. Not only did the worth of his skilled labor decrease, the actual over-all worth of his paycheck dropped as well.
As if that wasn't bad enough, with 6-9 months, the gas prices started their astronomical jump, and the grocery stores used that as the primary reason for yet another massive price hike in their stores. They claimed that, since it costs more to run trucks, that the product's prices had to increase accordingly, so as to make up for the new differential in profits.
While that, logically, made sense, it's been MONTHS since those days of +$4.00 p/gallon gasoline, and we have yet to see a single price drop here. Essentially, it's greed being expelled by a company/group of companies that have the clout to bully the "little guy" because, seriously, people have to eat.
See, these are the kinds of things that worry me, not over-paid bank CEOs whining or bloated car manufacturers that dug their own grave. It's larger companies and the government fucking the little guy time and time again, simply because they can. That said, I have a feeling that when our new administration and newly re-organized Congress decide that parasitical programs like welfare and SSI need to be raised, that it will just keep digging an ever-deeper hole for the Little guy to get out of.
That's my 2 cent soapbox for the day.
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super_sam
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| Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 11:10 am Post subject: |
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Freddie is making the point that no one seems to get. When 'Vincent" can't afford to pay for groceries, he sure as hell isnt going to make his house payment. Just a thought, though. Will ge get a loan to buy a car? Probably not...
Moto, you aggrivate me to no end. You believe almost anything the news will ram up your ass. This economic situation has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING in common with the great depression. I would think, if anyone, that MR FUCKING COLLEGE DEGREE would have studied the "Great Depression" (theres a reason they called it great) This is a fucked up situation caused by overinflated housing prices, banks handing out bogus loans to people whom never should have qualified, and Nancy Pelosi and her piece of shit goons (like freddie said) raising the minimum wage. Actually, quite nothing like the "dirty thirties", but rather a man made cluster-fuck. And once they decide (which they never will) where prices and wages SHOULD be, this would straighten itself all out.
And contrary to what you think.... Yes, when we fall, so does the rest of the civilized world. They don't call us an economic superpower for nothing.. I wish all the economic experts would bury their heads in the sand, rather than up their ass.. THIS WHOLE THING IS NOTHING LIKE THE GREAT DEPRESSION.... Nice try though. |
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Motokid
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| Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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Here's the snap-shot of the world economic situation for all of 2008:
| Quote: | New York - down 34% so far
London - down 31.3%
Paris - down 42.7%
Frankfurt - down 40.4%
Mumbai - down 51.9%
Singapore - down 49.2%
Sydney - down 41.3%
Hong Kong - down 48.3%
Shanghai - down 65.2%
Tokyo - down 42.1%
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So all that is American media, false speculation, and the end of the Bush cluster-fuck?
Will the eventual collapse of the American Auto Industry, the second wave of mortgage foreclosures that's coming, and massive unemployment magically change or go away if the media starts reporting good news? |
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